PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.35 – 35.86

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408 ±9.3

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 11.37Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 118.48Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 25.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±12.8

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -0.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8761AHS TigerByte8761

Season APEX 38Event APEX -2.05Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 38.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5219, 1002, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5219, 1002, 11214

Auto

28.5 19%

Teleop

70.8 47%

Endgame

50.9 34%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7514, 8761, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7514, 8761, 4026

Auto

18.7 45%

Teleop

18.3 45%

Endgame

4.1 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.4pts

Blue projected score35.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.5
Score range: 19–172
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 92.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408Season APEX215

28.5Auto18.7

70.8Teleop18.3

50.9Endgame4.1

18Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	26
teleop	39	47
endgame	16	1
foul	0	0
total	81	74

Result

Final score

81 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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