PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.59 – 79.39

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.8 ±11.2

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 93.5Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 8.81Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 8.28Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±10.4

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 26.08Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 33.9Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 19.41Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2974, 9770, 6905

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2974, 9770, 6905

Auto

24.9 24%

Teleop

61.3 58%

Endgame

19.2 18%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5900, 8736, 6887

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 8736, 6887

Auto

12.4 17%

Teleop

39.8 54%

Endgame

21.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.6pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.2
Score range: 63–127
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 91.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.8Season APEX196.8

24.9Auto12.4

61.3Teleop39.8

19.2Endgame21

22Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	21
teleop	19	54
endgame	11	27
foul	0	0
total	51	102

Result

Final score

51 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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