PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.68 – 79.24

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±9.3

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 53.86Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 32.32Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 46.5Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.3 ±11.7

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 26.62Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 13.46Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 39.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9477, 8736, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 8736, 6829

Auto

4.3 3%

Teleop

88.6 68%

Endgame

37.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5900, 8849, 6772

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 8849, 6772

Auto

19.4 26%

Teleop

23.8 32%

Endgame

30.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 63–149
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 87.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.7Season APEX149.3

4.3Auto19.4

88.6Teleop23.8

37.7Endgame30.7

36Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	126	53
endgame	50	39
foul	0	10
total	202	117

Result

Final score

202 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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