PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.97 – 119.45

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220 ±9.8

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 22.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 14.88Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 50.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±10.5

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 22.2Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 52.91Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3329Wildbots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 44.34Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4112, 11214, 6772

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4112, 11214, 6772

Auto

25.3 30%

Teleop

34.6 42%

Endgame

23.3 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10338, 9477, 3329

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10338, 9477, 3329

Auto

12.2 10%

Teleop

76.6 66%

Endgame

28.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88pts

Blue projected score119.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.5
Score range: 69–138
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220Season APEX206.3

25.3Auto12.2

34.6Teleop76.6

23.3Endgame28.1

37Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	0
teleop	13	34
endgame	25	47
foul	15	0
total	68	81

Result

Final score

68 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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