PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.57 – 65.2

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±9.8

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 21.12Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 113.67Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 28.78Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±11.7

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 20.27Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 11.4Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 33.53Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4112, 1002, 832

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4112, 1002, 832

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

87.7 56%

Endgame

45.0 29%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6905, 6712, 1746

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6905, 6712, 1746

Auto

20.1 32%

Teleop

38.0 60%

Endgame

5.6 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.6pts

Blue projected score65.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.4
Score range: 49–180
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 89.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.8Season APEX176.7

24.3Auto20.1

87.7Teleop38

45Endgame5.6

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	15
teleop	55	14
endgame	27	10
foul	0	0
total	107	39

Result

Final score

107 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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