PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.8 – 230.69

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.2 ±11.7

3329Wildbots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 37.01Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 25.52Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -10.73Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.1 ±8.7

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 79.79Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 54.05Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 96.85Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3329, 5900, 7514

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3329, 5900, 7514

Auto

8.5 21%

Teleop

16.9 42%

Endgame

15.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6919, 7451, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6919, 7451, 2974

Auto

40.2 18%

Teleop

116.2 52%

Endgame

66.4 30%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.39 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score230.7pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.9
Score range: 36–247
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 87.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.2Season APEX606.1

8.5Auto40.2

16.9Teleop116.2

15Endgame66.4

43Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	42
teleop	38	164
endgame	15	39
foul	0	0
total	64	245

Result

Final score

64 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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