PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.9 – 60.14

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348 ±9.3

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 86.4Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 30.49Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 24.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±9.8

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 44.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 19.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX -3.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6919, 6905, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6919, 6905, 11214

Auto

23.9 18%

Teleop

72.7 54%

Endgame

36.8 28%

Strengths

· 6919 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9477, 832, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 832, 8866

Auto

9.7 16%

Teleop

38.3 62%

Endgame

14.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.9pts

Blue projected score60.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.8
Score range: 44–157
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 87.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348Season APEX254.3

23.9Auto9.7

72.7Teleop38.3

36.8Endgame14.1

113Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	19
teleop	39	92
endgame	7	17
foul	5	5
total	92	133

Result

Final score

92 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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