PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.26 – 34.78

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 6.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±13.3

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 15.95Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -7.18Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 17.49Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.1 ±10.4

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 9.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 5.15Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 19.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8849, 7514, 10338

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8849, 7514, 10338

Auto

13.5 49%

Teleop

-2.5 0%

Endgame

16.3 60%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5219, 9480, 4112

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5219, 9480, 4112

Auto

3.6 11%

Teleop

11.0 35%

Endgame

16.9 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.3pts

Blue projected score34.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.5
Score range: 10–51
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 88.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.6Season APEX208.1

13.5Auto3.6

-2.5Teleop11

16.3Endgame16.9

70Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	20
teleop	7	22
endgame	13	4
foul	0	0
total	28	46

Result

Final score

28 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 6.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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