PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.71 – 76.34

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.9 ±11

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 22.63Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7676THS RoboDogs

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -19.55Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 5.63Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.3 ±11.2

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 33.53Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 38.95Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 3.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6772, 7676, 6887

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6772, 7676, 6887

Auto

20.3 100%

Teleop

-11.0 0%

Endgame

-8.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11214, 4730, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11214, 4730, 8866

Auto

14.5 20%

Teleop

40.0 54%

Endgame

19.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.7pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.6
Score range: -6–91
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 85.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.9Season APEX200.3

20.3Auto14.5

-11Teleop40

-8.5Endgame19

61Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	44	12
endgame	18	18
foul	0	0
total	89	45

Result

Final score

89 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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