PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.75 – 27.18

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±9.8

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 5.05Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 28.19Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 43.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±10.4

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 34.96Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 9.78Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -17.56Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9480, 5900, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9480, 5900, 9477

Auto

2.0 3%

Teleop

46.1 60%

Endgame

28.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6905, 5219, 6023

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6905, 5219, 6023

Auto

4.9 20%

Teleop

14.2 58%

Endgame

5.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.8pts

Blue projected score27.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 11–93
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 86.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.2Season APEX185.7

2Auto4.9

46.1Teleop14.2

28.4Endgame5.5

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	56	3
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	84	28

Result

Final score

84 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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