PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.98 – 87.42

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.9 ±9.8

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 47.87Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 14.61Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 14.5Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.4 ±11.7

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 23.16Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 23.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 41.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7451, 6905, 6023

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7451, 6905, 6023

Auto

22.1 30%

Teleop

40.2 55%

Endgame

10.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4730, 6887, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4730, 6887, 4026

Auto

23.3 27%

Teleop

48.4 56%

Endgame

14.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score87.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.4
Score range: 58–106
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 65 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.9Season APEX203.4

22.1Auto23.3

40.2Teleop48.4

10.5Endgame14.7

0Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	21	18
endgame	3	2
foul	0	0
total	32	33

Result

Final score

32 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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