PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.78 – 147.11

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±9.8

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 27.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 1.21Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 41.83Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.7 ±12.4

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 112.76Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX -0.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 35.26Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1746, 5608, 7451

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1746, 5608, 7451

Auto

14.2 19%

Teleop

42.8 58%

Endgame

16.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2974, 7514, 10376

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2974, 7514, 10376

Auto

24.3 16%

Teleop

89.0 60%

Endgame

34.7 23%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.8pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.3
Score range: 56–162
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 83.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291Season APEX341.7

14.2Auto24.3

42.8Teleop89

16.8Endgame34.7

51Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	35
teleop	52	31
endgame	39	17
foul	10	5
total	127	88

Result

Final score

127 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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