PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.78 – 64.55

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.3 ±11.2

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 10.49Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 88.47Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 19.82Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±11.2

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 15.7Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 17.21Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 31.64Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6712, 6919, 832

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6712, 6919, 832

Auto

26.9 23%

Teleop

59.8 51%

Endgame

30.3 26%

Strengths

· 6919 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8849, 4026, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8849, 4026, 6829

Auto

12.2 20%

Teleop

31.5 52%

Endgame

17.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.8pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 50–134
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 82.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.3Season APEX287.9

26.9Auto12.2

59.8Teleop31.5

30.3Endgame17.3

83Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	66	53
endgame	19	52
foul	0	0
total	127	120

Result

Final score

127 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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