PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.25 – 82.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±11.2

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 86.81Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 32.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 10.49Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±12.8

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 0.01Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 32.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 50.43Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1002, 10376, 9480

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1002, 10376, 9480

Auto

20.8 16%

Teleop

87.7 67%

Endgame

22.0 17%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7514, 6772, 4730

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7514, 6772, 4730

Auto

29.4 37%

Teleop

36.6 46%

Endgame

12.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.3pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.4
Score range: 68–145
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 82.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.7Season APEX187.4

20.8Auto29.4

87.7Teleop36.6

22Endgame12.9

41Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	76	38
endgame	54	13
foul	0	0
total	144	66

Result

Final score

144 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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