PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.6 – 69.63

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±10.5

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 13.32Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 14.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 109.19Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90 ±12.2

7676THS RoboDogs

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -0.18Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 47.21Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 22.6Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10338, 832, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10338, 832, 2974

Auto

25.6 18%

Teleop

62.7 45%

Endgame

52.5 37%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7676, 6905, 8849

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7676, 6905, 8849

Auto

8.4 13%

Teleop

52.2 80%

Endgame

4.4 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67
Score range: 55–152
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 82.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.6Season APEX90

25.6Auto8.4

62.7Teleop52.2

52.5Endgame4.4

36Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	10
teleop	73	3
endgame	44	0
foul	5	0
total	159	13

Result

Final score

159 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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