PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.82 – 37.97

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.8 ±9.8

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 28.4Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 18.63Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 6.79Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.1 ±12.8

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -0.65Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 15.61Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 23.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7451, 5900, 5219

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7451, 5900, 5219

Auto

10.2 20%

Teleop

13.0 25%

Endgame

28.7 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4112, 6712, 9770

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4112, 6712, 9770

Auto

16.9 47%

Teleop

24.3 67%

Endgame

-5.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.8pts

Blue projected score38pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 24–68
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 80.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.8Season APEX131.1

10.2Auto16.9

13Teleop24.3

28.7Endgame-5.1

23Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	46	20
endgame	48	7
foul	0	0
total	109	43

Result

Final score

109 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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