PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.05 – 33.14

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 112.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.5 ±9.3

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 23.98Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 52.1Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 34.97Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±11.2

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 41.16Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 18.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -26.06Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6905, 1002, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6905, 1002, 9477

Auto

13.1 12%

Teleop

60.0 56%

Endgame

34.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4730, 6829, 6023

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4730, 6829, 6023

Auto

6.9 21%

Teleop

26.8 82%

Endgame

-1.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score33.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.9
Score range: 19–125
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 75.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.5Season APEX276.7

13.1Auto6.9

60Teleop26.8

34.3Endgame-1

41Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	181	67
endgame	52	28
foul	0	5
total	251	118

Result

Final score

251 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 112.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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