PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

34.96 – 7.37

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.8 ±10.4

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 25.3Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 7.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 2.55Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±11.7

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 4.76Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 0.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 2.47Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8736, 1746, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

35 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8736, 1746, 4026

Auto

7.7 22%

Teleop

11.0 32%

Endgame

16.0 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8849, 6887, 9480

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8849, 6887, 9480

Auto

7.7 100%

Teleop

-3.8 0%

Endgame

0.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35pts

Blue projected score7.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: -7–49
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 75.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.8Season APEX160.7

7.7Auto7.7

11Teleop-3.8

16Endgame0.9

62Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	4
teleop	42	28
endgame	23	9
foul	0	15
total	93	56

Result

Final score

93 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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