PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.68 – 68.31

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.1 ±11.7

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 42.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 6.81Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8761AHS TigerByte8761

Season APEX 38Event APEX 18.99Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.9 ±9.3

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 29.59Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 20.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 18.5Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6772, 8866, 8761

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6772, 8866, 8761

Auto

21.6 33%

Teleop

24.2 37%

Endgame

20.3 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7451, 832, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7451, 832, 6829

Auto

5.0 7%

Teleop

39.2 57%

Endgame

24.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.7pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.4
Score range: 55–82
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 72.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.1Season APEX373.9

21.6Auto5

24.2Teleop39.2

20.3Endgame24.3

25Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	15
teleop	11	58
endgame	13	31
foul	5	0
total	52	104

Result

Final score

52 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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