PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.87 – 30.37

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.8 ±9.8

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 33.92Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 10.35Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -15.4Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.1 ±11.7

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 17.96Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 6.62Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 5.79Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9477, 4112, 6023

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 4112, 6023

Auto

8.0 28%

Teleop

11.4 40%

Endgame

9.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8736, 9480, 7514

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8736, 9480, 7514

Auto

-3.7 0%

Teleop

21.7 70%

Endgame

13.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.9pts

Blue projected score30.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 16–43
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 73.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.8Season APEX233.1

8Auto-3.7

11.4Teleop21.7

9.1Endgame13.1

47Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	23
teleop	4	19
endgame	3	5
foul	0	0
total	14	47

Result

Final score

14 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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