Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 111.54
16%84%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
91 – 261
Prediction correct · off by 120.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.1 ±12.4
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -22.73Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 143.4Event APEX -1.72Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38Event APEX 5.25Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 25.34Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 9.32Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 76.88Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8849, 7451, 8761
12
/ 100 compatProjected
-19.2 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 8849, 7451, 8761
Auto
0.9 0%
Teleop
-6.0 41%
Endgame
-9.7 66%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1002, 6772, 2974
83
/ 100 compatProjected
111.5 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 1002, 6772, 2974
Auto
9.1 9%
Teleop
45.4 46%
Endgame
43.7 45%
Strengths
- · 2974 anchors offense
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score-19.2pts
Blue projected score111.5pts
Red win probability16%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 20%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -111.5
- Score range
- -12–124
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
200.1Season APEX576.9
0.9Auto9.1
-6Teleop45.4
-9.7Endgame43.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 72 |
| teleop | 45 | 123 |
| endgame | 32 | 66 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 91 | 261 |
Result
Final score
91 – 261
Prediction correct · off by 120.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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