PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.35 – 55.44

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.5 ±9.8

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 21.67Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 9.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±11.7

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 18.94Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 18.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 18.38Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6829, 5219, 5900

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6829, 5219, 5900

Auto

3.0 7%

Teleop

20.9 45%

Endgame

22.2 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9770, 4026, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9770, 4026, 8866

Auto

11.1 22%

Teleop

10.7 21%

Endgame

29.6 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.4pts

Blue projected score55.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 41–67
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 67.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.5Season APEX229.4

3Auto11.1

20.9Teleop10.7

22.2Endgame29.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	14
teleop	23	6
endgame	28	0
foul	5	0
total	64	20

Result

Final score

64 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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