PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.21 – 18.85

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±11

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -5.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 2.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 54.06Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.5 ±12.4

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 9.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -9.56Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 18.91Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6887, 1746, 10338

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6887, 1746, 10338

Auto

9.1 17%

Teleop

29.6 56%

Endgame

14.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7514, 6712, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7514, 6712, 9477

Auto

-0.5 0%

Teleop

10.0 47%

Endgame

12.0 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score18.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.4
Score range: 8–62
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 63.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.5Season APEX203.5

9.1Auto-0.5

29.6Teleop10

14.5Endgame12

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	30	57
endgame	19	13
foul	0	0
total	67	82

Result

Final score

67 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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