PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.17 – 68.87

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249 ±11.2

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 22.47Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 17.64Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 18.06Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±10.4

3329Wildbots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 10.77Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 37.66Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 20.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10376, 6829, 5608

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10376, 6829, 5608

Auto

-5.4 0%

Teleop

45.1 75%

Endgame

20.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3329, 6905, 6772

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3329, 6905, 6772

Auto

6.6 10%

Teleop

27.4 43%

Endgame

30.3 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.2pts

Blue projected score68.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 47–80
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 63.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249Season APEX198.5

-5.4Auto6.6

45.1Teleop27.4

20.5Endgame30.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	36	26
endgame	10	10
foul	0	15
total	60	66

Result

Final score

60 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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