PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.94 – 33.02

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.5 ±9.8

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX -8.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX -3.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 36.56Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±10.5

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 22.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7676THS RoboDogs

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -17.46Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 28.3Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4026, 5219, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4026, 5219, 2974

Auto

-6.4 0%

Teleop

16.0 69%

Endgame

13.7 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11214, 7676, 8736

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11214, 7676, 8736

Auto

-0.2 0%

Teleop

6.1 21%

Endgame

23.8 80%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.9pts

Blue projected score33pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.1
Score range: 14–44
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 59.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.5Season APEX190.2

-6.4Auto-0.2

16Teleop6.1

13.7Endgame23.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	65	10
endgame	58	4
foul	5	5
total	145	38

Result

Final score

145 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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