PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.88 – 210.58

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.3 ±9.3

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 85.88Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 94.6Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 15.4Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±9.3

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 12.56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 97.06Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 100.96Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6829, 2974, 6905

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6829, 2974, 6905

Auto

28.0 15%

Teleop

104.0 55%

Endgame

56.1 30%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5900, 6919, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 6919, 1002

Auto

42.1 20%

Teleop

108.8 52%

Endgame

58.5 28%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.9pts

Blue projected score210.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.7
Score range: 178–229
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 100.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.3Season APEX547

28Auto42.1

104Teleop108.8

56.1Endgame58.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	46
teleop	48	169
endgame	68	60
foul	0	0
total	137	275

Result

Final score

137 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Match videos

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