PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.51 – 103.56

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.6 ±12.2

4240TroTek Warriors

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 12.16Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 51.38Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 12.97Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.9 ±10.4

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 21.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 58.94Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 22.74Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4240, 6925, 4468

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4240, 6925, 4468

Auto

25.7 33%

Teleop

37.1 48%

Endgame

14.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5900, 6772, 5608

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 6772, 5608

Auto

24.4 26%

Teleop

45.5 49%

Endgame

23.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.5pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27
Score range: 57–124
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 109.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.6Season APEX175.9

25.7Auto24.4

37.1Teleop45.5

14.7Endgame23.3

25Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	37
teleop	14	51
endgame	16	39
foul	0	5
total	58	132

Result

Final score

58 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Match videos

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