PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.34 – 140.97

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±10.4

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 23.1Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 47.52Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 98.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.8 ±9.3

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 33.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 5.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 101.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 832, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 832, 4026

Auto

45.7 27%

Teleop

87.1 52%

Endgame

33.5 20%

Strengths

· 4026 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7451, 3344, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7451, 3344, 6829

Auto

20.9 15%

Teleop

93.8 69%

Endgame

21.7 16%

Strengths

· 6829 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.3pts

Blue projected score141pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 121–189
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 108.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.7Season APEX351.8

45.7Auto20.9

87.1Teleop93.8

33.5Endgame21.7

1Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	31
teleop	100	58
endgame	44	62
foul	0	0
total	188	151

Result

Final score

188 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Match videos

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