PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.08 – 103.71

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±10.4

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 38.43Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 40.88Rank 14Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 16.77Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.9 ±10.4

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 22.3Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 58.43Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 22.98Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1414, 3635, 4112

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1414, 3635, 4112

Auto

19.5 20%

Teleop

54.1 55%

Endgame

24.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5900, 6772, 5608

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 6772, 5608

Auto

24.2 26%

Teleop

44.2 47%

Endgame

25.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.6
Score range: 77–123
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.6Season APEX175.9

19.5Auto24.2

54.1Teleop44.2

24.8Endgame25.9

51Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	26
teleop	36	46
endgame	35	14
foul	0	15
total	90	101

Result

Final score

90 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Match videos

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