PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.09 – 109.43

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±10.4

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 25.03Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 48.58Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 99.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.6 ±11.2

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -3.54Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 8.6Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 104.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 832, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 832, 4026

Auto

45.5 27%

Teleop

90.8 53%

Endgame

34.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9057, 3344, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9057, 3344, 6829

Auto

16.7 16%

Teleop

60.6 58%

Endgame

26.7 26%

Strengths

· 6829 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.1pts

Blue projected score109.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 89–193
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.7Season APEX240.6

45.5Auto16.7

90.8Teleop60.6

34.6Endgame26.7

3Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	25
teleop	138	30
endgame	39	50
foul	35	75
total	250	180

Result

Final score

250 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 73.7 pts

Match videos

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