PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.96 – 81.43

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.2 ±11.7

4240TroTek Warriors

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 14.25Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 25.46Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 40.25Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.6 ±11.7

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 23.61Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 20.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 37.72Rank 14Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4240, 5900, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4240, 5900, 1414

Auto

20.5 25%

Teleop

39.5 49%

Endgame

21.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10376, 5608, 3635

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10376, 5608, 3635

Auto

22.4 29%

Teleop

35.2 45%

Endgame

20.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80pts

Blue projected score81.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 61–100
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.2Season APEX152.6

20.5Auto22.4

39.5Teleop35.2

21.3Endgame20.3

17Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	18	68
endgame	28	19
foul	0	5
total	65	120

Result

Final score

65 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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