PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.43 – 57.15

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 38.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.4 ±11

4468Fernbank LINKS

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 22.33Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 66.43Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 16.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±12.8

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 34.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7104The Bot Brothers

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 1.24Rank 8Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 20.97Rank 28Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4468, 6772, 4112

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4468, 6772, 4112

Auto

26.3 26%

Teleop

55.7 55%

Endgame

18.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9480, 7104, 9770

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9480, 7104, 9770

Auto

6.4 11%

Teleop

22.1 39%

Endgame

28.1 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.4pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.3
Score range: 38–124
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.4Season APEX154.1

26.3Auto6.4

55.7Teleop22.1

18.6Endgame28.1

52Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	17	26
endgame	17	25
foul	0	10
total	54	82

Result

Final score

54 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 38.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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