PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.56 – 95.82

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153 ±11.7

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 25.66Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 33.81Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 26.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±11.2

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 11.56Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4240TroTek Warriors

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 9.1Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 75.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10376, 6887, 5900

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10376, 6887, 5900

Auto

15.1 18%

Teleop

55.3 64%

Endgame

15.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3815, 4240, 4188

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 4240, 4188

Auto

36.0 39%

Teleop

32.8 36%

Endgame

22.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score95.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 67–115
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153Season APEX312.5

15.1Auto36

55.3Teleop32.8

15.8Endgame22.8

0Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	52
teleop	24	100
endgame	22	9
foul	10	0
total	77	161

Result

Final score

77 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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