Qualification · Qualification 5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
37.98 – 103.67
31%69%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
23 – 78
Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 120.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 3.09Rank 29Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 23.24Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 11.65Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 23.95Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 33.31Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 46.41Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4459, 3815, 4468
30
/ 100 compatProjected
38 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4459, 3815, 4468
Auto
15.3 41%
Teleop
17.8 48%
Endgame
4.3 11%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5608, 7451, 832
63
/ 100 compatProjected
103.7 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5608, 7451, 832
Auto
26.5 27%
Teleop
47.8 49%
Endgame
22.3 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score38pts
Blue projected score103.7pts
Red win probability31%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 22%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -65.7
- Score range
- 17–125
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
120.5Season APEX255.1
15.3Auto26.5
17.8Teleop47.8
4.3Endgame22.3
0Consistency59
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 16 |
| teleop | 4 | 32 |
| endgame | 0 | 15 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 23 | 78 |
Result
Final score
23 – 78
Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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