PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.39 – 222.12

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±9.8

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 28.07Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 21.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 30.64Rank 14Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±9.3

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 68.53Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 66.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 87.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7451, 5900, 3635

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7451, 5900, 3635

Auto

15.3 19%

Teleop

58.0 72%

Endgame

7.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6772, 4188, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6772, 4188, 6829

Auto

46.6 21%

Teleop

130.9 59%

Endgame

43.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.4pts

Blue projected score222.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.7
Score range: 62–240
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.3Season APEX459.6

15.3Auto46.6

58Teleop130.9

7.6Endgame43

35Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	29
teleop	54	139
endgame	34	43
foul	0	5
total	102	216

Result

Final score

102 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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