PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.27 – 32

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±10.5

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 15.56Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 73.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5828Flying Riots

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 13.91Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124 ±13.9

9057G.I.R.L.

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX -7.2Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 34.41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4240TroTek Warriors

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 4.79Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3344, 4188, 5828

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 4188, 5828

Auto

31.0 30%

Teleop

52.3 51%

Endgame

20.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9057, 10376, 4240

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9057, 10376, 4240

Auto

21.4 84%

Teleop

-1.3 0%

Endgame

5.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score32pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.3
Score range: 14–121
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX124

31Auto21.4

52.3Teleop-1.3

20.2Endgame5.4

45Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	16	15
endgame	9	8
foul	0	0
total	46	42

Result

Final score

46 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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