PCH District Columbus Event presented by Muscogee County School District (CTAE) and Columbus Development Authority

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.28 – 68.99

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±10.4

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 24.93Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 19.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -0.58Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.8 ±12.8

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 1.97Rank 29Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 27.24Rank 12Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 39.78Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6772, 3344, 5900

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6772, 3344, 5900

Auto

8.2 19%

Teleop

33.6 76%

Endgame

2.3 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4459, 1414, 10376

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4459, 1414, 10376

Auto

11.4 16%

Teleop

38.3 55%

Endgame

20.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.3pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.7
Score range: 29–84
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 83.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.9Season APEX139.8

8.2Auto11.4

33.6Teleop38.3

2.3Endgame20.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	9
teleop	32	0
endgame	20	7
foul	0	0
total	73	16

Result

Final score

73 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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