Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.57 – 265.16

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.2 ±9.3

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 139.56Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 111.04Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 61.97Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.3 ±9.8

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 93.5Rank 11Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 111.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 60.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 4188, 8080

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1261, 4188, 8080

Auto

62.0 21%

Teleop

164.1 55%

Endgame

72.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4026, 1648, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4026, 1648, 1414

Auto

54.5 21%

Teleop

150.1 57%

Endgame

60.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312.6pts

Blue projected score265.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.4
Score range: 225–353
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 221.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.2Season APEX316.3

62Auto54.5

164.1Teleop150.1

72.7Endgame60.7

41Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	35
teleop	130	74
endgame	84	19
foul	35	0
total	334	128

Result

Final score

334 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts

Match videos

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