Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

368.62 – 240.15

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±9.3

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 62.84Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 138.32Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 167.46Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±9.8

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 67.16Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 74.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 98.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8736, 2974, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8736, 2974, 4189

Auto

76.5 21%

Teleop

206.0 57%

Endgame

81.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9477, 1746, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9477, 1746, 8866

Auto

45.6 19%

Teleop

142.4 60%

Endgame

49.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score368.6pts

Blue projected score240.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.5
Score range: 201–408
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 504 vs event baseline 216.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524Season APEX290.2

76.5Auto45.6

206Teleop142.4

81.3Endgame49.2

74Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	60
teleop	183	95
endgame	72	44
foul	0	0
total	305	199

Result

Final score

305 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Match videos

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