Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.59 – 248.85

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.5 ±9.3

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 20.24Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 154.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 204.12Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.3 ±9.8

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 87.9Rank 11Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 105.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 55.54Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3635, 6919, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3635, 6919, 1002

Auto

89.5 24%

Teleop

177.9 48%

Endgame

99.7 27%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4026, 1648, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4026, 1648, 1414

Auto

51.5 21%

Teleop

146.5 59%

Endgame

51.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score378.6pts

Blue projected score248.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.7
Score range: 210–418
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 214.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.5Season APEX316.3

89.5Auto51.5

177.9Teleop146.5

99.7Endgame51.1

52Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	60
teleop	255	172
endgame	122	101
foul	0	0
total	470	333

Result

Final score

470 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts

Match videos

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