Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.77 – 202.67

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.2 ±9.3

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 136.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 108.34Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 58.34Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±9.8

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 25.58Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 89.14Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 87.95Rank 14Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 4188, 8080

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1261, 4188, 8080

Auto

57.7 20%

Teleop

162.3 57%

Endgame

63.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3344, 6705, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3344, 6705, 6829

Auto

24.9 12%

Teleop

121.0 59%

Endgame

59.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score302.8pts

Blue projected score202.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.1
Score range: 165–341
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 616 vs event baseline 213.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.2Season APEX287

57.7Auto24.9

162.3Teleop121

63.4Endgame59.5

31Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	84
teleop	172	148
endgame	90	41
foul	5	15
total	328	288

Result

Final score

328 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 pts

Match videos

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