Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

363.22 – 316.63

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

296 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±9.3

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 59.51Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 135.35Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 168.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537.2 ±9.3

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 140.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 112.67Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 63.26Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8736, 2974, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8736, 2974, 4189

Auto

77.5 22%

Teleop

201.6 57%

Endgame

74.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1261, 4188, 8080

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1261, 4188, 8080

Auto

65.5 22%

Teleop

159.9 53%

Endgame

74.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score363.2pts

Blue projected score316.6pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: 277–403
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 224.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524Season APEX537.2

77.5Auto65.5

201.6Teleop159.9

74.6Endgame74.3

77Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	85
teleop	197	213
endgame	55	74
foul	0	10
total	296	382

Result

Final score

296 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 66.3 pts

Match videos

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