Qualification · Qualification 87
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
394.12 – 84.03
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
443 – 81
Prediction correct · off by 26 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 518 ±9.3
Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 218.84Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 102.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 72.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 46.51Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 29.94Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 7.58Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1771, 1648, 1746
83
/ 100 compatProjected
394.1 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1771, 1648, 1746
Auto
90.0 23%
Teleop
234.8 60%
Endgame
67.4 17%
Strengths
- · 1771 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9480, 5900, 6910
34
/ 100 compatProjected
84 pts
~0.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9480, 5900, 6910
Auto
28.8 34%
Teleop
30.7 36%
Endgame
25.3 30%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.28
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score394.1pts
Blue projected score84pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 15%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 310.1
- Score range
- 46–432
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
518Season APEX174.4
90Auto28.8
234.8Teleop30.7
67.4Endgame25.3
60Consistency35
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 51 | 29 |
| teleop | 295 | 20 |
| endgame | 97 | 32 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 443 | 81 |
Result
Final score
443 – 81
Prediction correct · off by 26 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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