Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.15 – 157.1

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±9.8

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 37.92Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 136.76Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 19.47Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251 ±9.8

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 6.63Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 46.39Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 104.08Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4509, 1261, 3344

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4509, 1261, 3344

Auto

35.9 19%

Teleop

94.7 51%

Endgame

56.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6910, 6887, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6910, 6887, 1648

Auto

55.1 34%

Teleop

77.4 48%

Endgame

28.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194.2pts

Blue projected score157.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.1
Score range: 119–232
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 210.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.7Season APEX251

35.9Auto55.1

94.7Teleop77.4

56.1Endgame28.7

91Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	34
teleop	57	47
endgame	37	53
foul	0	0
total	135	134

Result

Final score

135 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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