Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.86 – 123.58

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±10.4

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX -Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 40.29Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±9.8

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX -Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 44Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 42.29Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5900, 6905, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5900, 6905, 6340

Auto

28.9 26%

Teleop

51.9 47%

Endgame

29.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6919, 6910, 5219

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6919, 6910, 5219

Auto

21.5 19%

Teleop

51.8 45%

Endgame

41.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score114.9pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.7
Score range: 75–164
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 223.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.1Season APEX347.1

6.6Auto10.3

14.6Teleop33.1

14.9Endgame34.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	35
teleop	27	113
endgame	38	70
foul	0	20
total	90	238

Result

Final score

90 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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