Qualification · Qualification 74
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
81.3 – 162.53
27%73%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
141 – 152
Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 292 ±9.8
Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 25.87Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 34.29Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 21.14Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 44.05Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 79.08Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 39.4Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7451, 6772, 5219
25
/ 100 compatProjected
81.3 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7451, 6772, 5219
Auto
29.9 39%
Teleop
8.2 11%
Endgame
38.9 51%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8577, 6023, 4509
51
/ 100 compatProjected
162.5 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8577, 6023, 4509
Auto
17.6 11%
Teleop
84.2 54%
Endgame
53.3 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.8 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score81.3pts
Blue projected score162.5pts
Red win probability27%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 22%, blue 19%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -81.2
- Score range
- 43–201
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
292Season APEX216.3
29.9Auto17.6
8.2Teleop84.2
38.9Endgame53.3
87Consistency67
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 18 |
| teleop | 73 | 81 |
| endgame | 35 | 53 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 141 | 152 |
Result
Final score
141 – 152
Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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