Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.95 – 230.8

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±9.8

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 38.87Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 0.51Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 65.57Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±9.8

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 29.22Rank 43Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 40.01Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 161.57Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6887, 11214, 832

/ 100 compat

Projected

105 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6887, 11214, 832

Auto

21.8 21%

Teleop

28.0 27%

Endgame

54.4 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3815, 9480, 2974

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3815, 9480, 2974

Auto

34.4 16%

Teleop

140.9 65%

Endgame

43.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.57 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score105pts

Blue projected score230.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.8
Score range: 67–269
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 213.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.1Season APEX354.2

21.8Auto34.4

28Teleop140.9

54.4Endgame43

62Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	43
teleop	96	99
endgame	58	29
foul	0	0
total	178	171

Result

Final score

178 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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