Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.94 – 117.16

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.3 ±10.4

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 19.37Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 22.08Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 95.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.4 ±10.4

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 84.48Rank 11Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 21.59Rank 45Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 11.09Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5608, 9522, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5608, 9522, 8866

Auto

36.5 27%

Teleop

82.6 61%

Endgame

17.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4026, 11174, 3344

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4026, 11174, 3344

Auto

19.9 17%

Teleop

63.5 55%

Endgame

33.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.9pts

Blue projected score117.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 78–176
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 214.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.3Season APEX181.4

36.5Auto19.9

82.6Teleop63.5

17.1Endgame33

0Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	28
teleop	12	92
endgame	55	56
foul	0	0
total	107	176

Result

Final score

107 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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