Qualification · Qualification 64
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
256.11 – 265.07
47%53%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
264 – 280
Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 23.47Rank 43Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 234.01Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -1.37Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 20.49Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 199.03Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 45.55Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3815, 1833, 11214
72
/ 100 compatProjected
256.1 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3815, 1833, 11214
Auto
72.4 29%
Teleop
147.1 58%
Endgame
33.3 13%
Strengths
- · 1833 anchors offense
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7451, 1002, 10482
76
/ 100 compatProjected
265.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7451, 1002, 10482
Auto
77.6 30%
Teleop
124.4 48%
Endgame
59.1 23%
Strengths
- · 1002 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score256.1pts
Blue projected score265.1pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 21%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -9
- Score range
- 217–304
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
425.4Season APEX494.5
72.4Auto77.6
147.1Teleop124.4
33.3Endgame59.1
101Consistency73
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 67 |
| teleop | 126 | 148 |
| endgame | 76 | 65 |
| foul | 45 | 0 |
| total | 264 | 280 |
Result
Final score
264 – 280
Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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