Qualification · Qualification 59
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
299.98 – 359.15
32%68%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
313 – 307
Prediction missed · off by 32.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 41.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 200.58Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 57.96Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 79.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 206.21Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 73.35Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10482, 1771, 8080
74
/ 100 compatProjected
300 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10482, 1771, 8080
Auto
64.9 21%
Teleop
193.1 64%
Endgame
44.1 15%
Strengths
- · 1771 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1746, 1002, 3329
85
/ 100 compatProjected
359.2 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1746, 1002, 3329
Auto
78.6 22%
Teleop
200.9 57%
Endgame
70.4 20%
Strengths
- · 1002 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score300pts
Blue projected score359.2pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -59.2
- Score range
- 262–397
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
451.9Season APEX444.7
64.9Auto78.6
193.1Teleop200.9
44.1Endgame70.4
12Consistency84
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 67 | 92 |
| teleop | 167 | 133 |
| endgame | 79 | 67 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 313 | 307 |
Result
Final score
313 – 307
Prediction missed · off by 32.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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